Jono Swain talks through PUMA’s risky, but calculated decision to split from the Volvo Ocean Race fleet with 800 miles left to sail in Leg 3. If all the variables work as planned, the results will only be seen in the final miles of the leg to Sanya, China.
On Sailing Anarchy’s forums, user Tis adds the following observations to the mix:
I wonder how the rumored daggerboard damage is playing into this decision. They chose to put their time on port in relatively benign conditions rather than up on the beach in a near gale. Following the leaders would have guaranteed short-tacking duel in 27knots, extremely steep seas, adverse current. Puma wasn’t ever going to overtake the leading boats in that type of race if they’ve got any damage on the port-tack dagger board. If they followed the leaders, the best they could have hoped for is third, and they could end up in fifth. This is exactly when you want to roll the dice.
We will learn soon if the boats hugging the beach can actually sail to their polars (as the routing assumes) in the sea state they are seeing. If they can, Puma may lose a place. If the beach conditions suck, however, Puma could make real gains. Given how little they had to lose, it seems like a decent gamble to take even if it isn’t very high probability.
